Corn, Wheat, Soybean Complex Market Commentary for 07-13-10
Wheat Market Recap Report for 7/13/2010
September Wheat ended up 13 1/2 at 549 1/4, 2 1/2 off the high and 18 1/2 up from the low. December Wheat settled up 14 at 578 1/4. This was 18 3/4 up from the low and 2 1/4 off the high.
December wheat traded lower overnight before rallying sharply into mid-to-late morning. On a slow day for news, traders said that the main supportive factor was a sharp break in the dollar and a general rally in commodities and equities. Weather continues to favor harvest progress in the Plains and for the last vestiges of the soft red harvest in the Midwest. Temperatures in the Northern Plains look to remain normal to above normal today with cooler temperatures due tomorrow which is considered favorable. This comes in advance of a longer range forecast that has much warmer temperatures locked in over the central and southern Plains next week, with temperatures in the Northern Plains remaining just above normal. The UK reported today that its May wheat exports were 200,115 tonnes, down from 279,081 tonnes in April. Exports for the first 11 months of the crop year are down sharply from the previous year. Basis levels for hard red winter wheat were steady this morning, as the harvest enters its final one third.
December Oats settled down 1 1/4 at 259. This was 6 3/4 off the high.
Soybean Complex Market Analysis for 7/13/2010
August Soybeans closed down 2 3/4 at 995, 2 up from the low and 9 3/4 off the high. November Soybeans finished up 3 1/2 at 954 1/2. This was 8 off the high and 8 up from the low.
August Soybean Oil closed up 0.41 at 38.02, 0.66 up from the low and 0.31 off the high.
August Soymeal settled down 3.8 at 297.0. This was 5.7 off the high and 2.0 up from the low.
November soybeans rallied during the second half of the overnight session, taking out yesterday’s highs by mid morning. However, prices eased back to near the middle of the day’s trading range into early afternoon. New crop soybean contracts posted moderate gains on the old crop July contract, reversing recent action in that spread. The meal/oil spread also saw a moderate reversal of recent action with oil gaining in the spread on the day. The USDA lowered its good-to-excellent rating of the US soybean crop by 1% to 65% on yesterday’s Crop Progress report, as expected. Traders said that today’s rally came largely in response to a break in the dollar and a sharp rally in crude oil. Weather forecasts continue to move in the direction of a hot air dome moving into the central and southern Plains, the SW Midwest and across all of the Delta by Tuesday of next week. This dome is expected to bring much above normal temperatures and remain in place for about one week. In the meantime, welcome rains are falling today across much of Indiana, central and southern Ohio and virtually all of Tennessee and Kentucky.
Corn Market Commentary for 7/13/2010
September Corn finished down 4 1/2 at 375 1/4, 8 off the high and 1 up from the low. December Corn closed down 4 3/4 at 387. This was 1 up from the low and 8 off the high.
December corn followed most commodity and equity markets higher into mid morning today, but lagged behind wheat, soybeans and other key markets such as crude oil and gold in the process. The market then sold off sharply into early afternoon to test the overnight lows. Traders said that an unexpected upgrade of 2% in the good-to-excellent rating of the corn crop on this week’s Crop Progress report helped to pressure the market along with forecasts calling for warm, but generally favorable conditions in much of the Midwest into this weekend. Temperatures are expected to rise to above normal in the central Midwest starting tomorrow with forecasts calling for a dome of very hot air over the western Corn Belt to start next week. This may cause problems for late pollinating corn as far north and east as the central Midwest, but much of the crop may have pollinated by that time.
September Rice ended up 0.06 at 9.86, 0.07 up from the low and 0.04 off the high.
With today’s review talking mostly about weather and the crop reports, traders might want to take a peek at the commercial traders momentum. The Commercial Trader momentum can be tracked by using the Commodity Futures Trading Commission Commitment of Traders reports. Our idea is that, in a value driven commodity futures market no one knows fair value like the people who produce it or, have to use it. In fact, it is precisely their sense of value that provides the commodity market’s rhythmic meanderings that swing traders love so much. Let’s face it, producers know when their product is overvalue and it should be sold just as well as end line users know when they should be stocking up at low prices. Therefore, trader should be able to incorporate this valuable information into their future market education.
The daily commentaries provide a rundown of each commodity’s traded price activity, an analysis of the factors that influenced price activity, a recap of any reports released that day, and a look ahead at the schedule for the next day. Market commentaries for soybeans, corn, wheat, silver and gold are provided by CME Group. The information in the Market Commentaries was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed therein constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts.
This blog is published by Andy Waldock. Andy Waldock is a financial advisor, broker, asset manager, trader, and analystfor Commodity & Derivative Advisors, located in Sandusky, Ohio. As a result, Andy Waldock may have positions for himself, his family, or his customers in any commodity future market discussed. The blog is meant for educational purposes and to develop a dialogue among those with an interest in the commodity future markets. The commodity markets may not be appropriate for all investors due to the high degree of leverage. There is considerable risk in investing in commodity futures. If you are interested in reading other published articles, commenting on his publications or subscribing to Andy’s blog, please visit http://blog.commodityandderivativeadv.com, or if you have any questions, please call 1-866-990-0777.
